Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 0.019937 0.022603 0.025515 0.028937 0.032851 0.037194 0.042387
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 0.015369 0.018889 0.023076 0.028438 0.035148 0.043295 0.053983
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 0.012950 0.016790 0.021621 0.028179 0.036896 0.048151 0.063894
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 0.011255 0.015237 0.020483 0.027948 0.038379 0.052551 0.073462
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 0.010277 0.014447 0.020166 0.028651 0.041040 0.058653 0.085917
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 0.009196 0.013358 0.019269 0.028365 0.042172 0.062601 0.095600
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 0.008640 0.012941 0.019252 0.029303 0.045129 0.069454 0.110374
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.007694 0.011834 0.018084 0.028342 0.045021 0.071527 0.117749
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.007002 0.011042 0.017306 0.027882 0.045608 0.074689 0.127172
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.006276 0.010123 0.016235 0.026824 0.045073 0.075899 0.133322
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.006047 0.009985 0.016401 0.027818 0.048074 0.083352 0.151289
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.005827 0.009837 0.016529 0.028745 0.051029 0.090992 0.170458
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.005572 0.009618 0.016530 0.029476 0.053757 0.098605 0.190720
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.005160 0.009086 0.015945 0.029096 0.054402 0.102436 0.204107
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.004806 0.008629 0.015448 0.028820 0.055198 0.106604 0.218638
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.004493 0.008219 0.014997 0.028584 0.056033 0.110913 0.233960
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.004335 0.008082 0.015040 0.029304 0.058839 0.119472 0.259485
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.004064 0.007706 0.014597 0.029012 0.059531 0.123706 0.275931
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.003962 0.007649 0.014766 0.029972 0.062945 0.134076 0.307731
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.003652 0.007157 0.014032 0.028988 0.062067 0.134974 0.317317
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.003422 0.006808 0.013560 0.028516 0.062262 0.138271 0.333095
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.003150 0.006353 0.012836 0.027433 0.060975 0.138040 0.340065
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.003100 0.006354 0.013058 0.028451 0.064606 0.149676 0.378813